Europe have enough energy to survive the winter. Perhaps next year will be different

The attempt by Russia to use its massive energy exports against Europe isn't going as planned. In retaliation for Western sanctions, Moscow has reduced gas deliveries, but the area has managed to accumulate enough for the coming winter. Europe is weaning itself off its main energy supply, almost eight months after Russian President Vladimir Putin sent his soldiers into Ukraine. In an effort to limit Moscow's capacity to fund its war, it has cut back on oil imports, while Russia has shut down vital gas pipelines. According to statistics from research firm Wood Mackenzie, Russia's proportion of the bloc's natural gas imports has decreased from 36% in October of last year to just 9% now. Additionally, the International Energy Agency reports that EU imports of Russian crude oil have decreased by 33% in advance of an embargo set to go into effect in December. By 2027, Europe hopes to be free of its dependency on Russian fossil fuels. To make up for this, it is increasing its imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, Norway, and Algeria. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, gas storage facilities are 91% full, far exceeding the 80% goal EU authorities set for nations to accomplish by November. At a news conference in Berlin on Wednesday, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck stated that "Putin will fail in his attempt to undermine the basic economic system, just as he will fail on the battlefield in Ukraine." However, economic prosperity has come at a steep price: the search for alternate energy sources has driven up energy prices sharply. Despite a steep decline since their peak in late August, European benchmark gas prices are still 265% more than they were a year ago, putting a strain on individuals, businesses, and governments who are then forced to provide significant subsidies. Germany, the hub of European manufacturing, anticipates a 0.4% decline in its economy in 2019. However, he continued, "reasonable prices in Europe are only anticipated in the second half of the decade." The region's energy security remains fragile even with gas storage nearly full, and blackouts and gas rationing are still conceivable in the coming months in the event of more supply shocks and an abnormally harsh winter. According to a July report by the International Energy Agency, if Russia decides to stop the remaining gas exports from this month, the union will likely experience supply difficulties early next year even with gas storage at least 90% full. There is "no certainty," according to Alexei Miller, CEO of Russia's state-owned energy giant Gazprom, that Europe will make it through the winter on its present stockpiles. He claimed that Germany's inventories could barely meet demand for up to 10 weeks. The next major issue for Europe will be replenishing those reserves next year. The International Monetary Fund issued a report on Tuesday stating that while the forthcoming winter will be difficult, "winter 2023 will likely be worse," and that Europe's energy crisis was not "a temporary shock." If temperatures drop significantly in the upcoming weeks, according to Tomas Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at the Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS), stockpiles may be "exceptionally low" by the end of March. The rebuilding of stocks with limited access to inexpensive Russian gas would be a "bigger ask" in 2022 than it would be in the EU member states' current situation, according to Marzec-Manser, even if they are successful in meeting the European Commission's target of 15% consumption reduction over the following five months. The fall of Russian imports led to a rush on LNG by Europe. According to ICIS data, between March and September of this year, Europe and the United Kingdom collectively bought about 68% more LNG from countries other than Russia than they did during the same time in 2021. However, the worldwide rivalry for LNG is already tough and might intensify if, as predicted, China's economy begins to expand a little faster next year.