The risk of climate tipping points is rising fast amid climate change

According to a significant study, the climate catastrophe has brought the globe dangerously close to many "disastrous" tipping points. It demonstrates that five perilous tipping thresholds may have already been crossed as a result of the 1.1C global warming brought on by human activity to date. These include abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost, the collapse of a major current in the north Atlantic, and the loss of Greenland's ice cap, all of which will result in significant sea level rises. Four of the five tipping points go from being feasible to likely at 1.5C of heating, the minimum rise now anticipated, according to the research. Another five tipping points become likely at 1.5C, including modifications to huge northern forests and the disappearance of practically all alpine glaciers. The researchers discovered evidence for 16 tipping points in total, the last six of which, in the scientists' estimations, would need to be triggered by global warming of at least 2C. The tipping points would occur throughout periods of time ranging from a few years to hundreds of years. The researchers came to the conclusion that beyond 1C of global warming, "the Earth may have departed a'safe' climate state," with the whole history of human civilization having evolved in temperatures lower than this. When one tipping point is crossed, it frequently causes cascades by setting off subsequent ones. However, as this is currently under investigation and was left out of the analysis, there may be minimal risk. Prof Johan Rockström, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who was part of the study team, said: “The world is heading towards 2-3C of global warming. “This sets Earth on course to cross multiple dangerous tipping points that will be disastrous for people across the world. To maintain liveable conditions on Earth and enable stable societies, we must do everything possible to prevent crossing tipping points.”

Dr David Armstrong McKay at the University of Exeter, a lead author of the study, said: “It’s really worrying. There are grounds for grief, but there are also still grounds for hope.

“The study really underpins why the Paris agreement goal of 1.5C is so important and must be fought for.

“We’re not saying that, because we’re probably going to hit some tipping points, everything is lost and it’s game over. Every fraction of a degree that we stop beyond 1.5C reduces the likelihood of hitting more tipping points.”